Abstract: In Second-Order Evidence and Bayesian Logic, Professor Lea Brilmayer touches on many intriguing issues in the fields of the philosophy of probability, mathematics, and logic, as well as issues in contemporary theory about legal proof, but her article has some deficiencies. While this article agrees that Bayesian analysis and formal logic are but a small part of the legal picture, and to be ‘mesmerized by precision’ would be to dwell in a fool's paradise, many of Professor Brilmayer’s specific arguments lead to puzzling and problematic conclusions. This article exposes them and provides an initial response.
Keywords: Second-Order Evidence and Bayesian Logic, Professor Lea Brilmayer, Bayesian Analysis
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